Biobased polymers growth at 14% over 5 years; Asia largest capacity

The year 2022 was a promising year for biobased polymers: the total installed capacity in 2022 was 4.9 million tonnes with an actual production of 4.5 million tonnes, which is 1% of the total production volume of fossil based polymers.

An increase to 9.3 million tonnes capacity in 2027 is expected, indicating an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 14%, significantly higher than the overall growth of polymers (3–4%).

The following polymers show an even higher increase significantly above the average growth rate: PHA will grow by 45%, PLA by 39%, PA will continue to grow by 37% and PP by 34% until 2027. PE in Europe will increase by 18% until 2027, followed by a 15% increase in casein polymers

Biobased epoxy resin production is on the rise, PTT (polytrimethylene terephthalate) regained attractiveness after several years of constant capacities and PE and PP made from bio-based naphtha are being further established with growing volumes. Increased capacities for PLA are ongoing, after being sold out in 2019. Current and future expansions for bio-based polyamides as well as PHAs are on the horizon. And also, biobased PET is getting back in the game.

The new market and trend report “Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers – Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2022–2027” by Nova Biopolymer shows capacities and production data for 17 commercially available, biobased polymers in the year 2022 and a forecast to 2027. These polymers can be grouped in biobased “drop-in”, “smart drop-in” and “dedicated” inputs within the chemical production chain.

After Asia as leading region, which has installed the largest biobased production capacities worldwide with 41% in 2022, the largest capacities being for PLA and PA, Europe follows with 27%, mainly based on starch-containing polymer compounds, PE and PP.

North America shares 19% with major installed capacities for PLA and PTT and South America 13%, mainly based on PE. The less then 1% share of Australia/Oceania is based on starch-containing polymer compounds.

Today, biobased polymers can be used in almost all market segments and applications, but the various applications per polymer can be very different.

The major feedstock used for biobased polymer production are sugars (29%), starch is used with 18%. These feedstocks are gained from high-yielding sugarcane and maize resulting in high area efficiency. Additionally, these yields are not only used for polymer production but also for animal feed, regarding the protein share, and thus only a part is allocated. Glycerol (27%) a by-product from biodiesel production represents a biomass without additional land use.

Several global brands are already expanding their feedstock portfolio to include, next to fossil-based, also sources of renewable carbon, CO2, recycling and especially biomass. This rethinking from the market point of view, especially in the use of biomass, will, and already did, increase the demand and supply of bio-based as well as biodegradable polymers.

Today, renewable carbon from biomass, CO2 and recycling is making up 11% of the worldwide polymer market. Nevertheless, at the same time, there is a lack of support from policy in Europe, which still only promotes biofuels and bioenergy. In contrast, supportive regulations for bio-based chemicals and polymers can be found in Asia and especially in the US.

The increase in production capacity from 2021 to 2022, is mainly based on the expansion of biobased epoxy resin and PTT production in Asia, as well as an increase in PE and PP in Europe.

Moreover, increased and new Asian production capacities for PLA and PA, as well as worldwide expansion for PHAs were reported in 2022. Especially PHAs, PLA, polyamides and PP will continue to grow significantly (34–45%) by 2027.

While capacities for PHA and PLA will grow worldwide with 45 and 39%, respectively, polyamides will mainly increase by 37% in Asia and PP with 34% in Europe.

Considering the steadily increasing demand for biobased polymers, the need for biomass feedstocks should be taken into account as an important factor. This is especially true for the recurring debate on the use of food crops for bio‑based polymer production.

The total demand for biomass was 13.4 billion tonnes for feed, bioenergy, food, material use, biofuels as well as bio‑based polymers. While the majority of the biomass (59%) is used for feed, only 0.028% are needed for bio‑based polymer production. This results in a biomass feedstock demand of 3.8 million tonnes for the production of 4.5 million tonnes of (fully and partly) biobased polymers and corresponds to an agricultural land share of only 0.007%. This small area share is due to various factors: The major feedstock used for bio-based polymer production are sugars (29%), starch is used with 18%. These feedstocks are gained from high-yielding sugarcane and maize resulting in high area efficiency.

Additionally, these yields are not only used for polymer production but also for animal feed, regarding the protein share, and thus only a part is allocated. Glycerol (27%) a by‑product from biodiesel production represents a biomass without additional land use. This glycerol is mainly used for epoxy resin production via epichlorohydrin as an intermediate. The utilised biomass also comprises 15% non‑edible plant oil, such as castor oil, 7% from cellulose (mainly used for cellulose acetate) and 4% from edible plant oil.

From the 4.5 million tonnes of produced (fully and partly) biobased polymers 2.3 million tonnes are actual bio‑based components of the polymers (50%). Considering this fact, almost 1.7 times more feedstock is needed than actually is incorporated into the final product. This amount of 1.5 million tonnes (40%) of feedstock that is not ending up in the product is due to a high number of conversion steps and related feedstock and intermediate losses, as well as the formation of by-products.

The only way for polymers, plastics and chemicals to become sustainable, climate-friendly and part of the circular economy is the complete substitution of fossil carbon with renewable carbon from alternative sources: biomass, CO2 and recycling (www.renewable-carbon.eu). This necessary transition is already on the strategic agenda of several global brands, that are already expanding their feedstock portfolio to include, next to fossil-based, all three sources of renewable carbon. This rethinking from the market point of view, especially in the use of biomass, will, and already did, increase the supply of bio-based as well as biodegradable polymers. Today, renewable carbon from biomass, CO2 and recycling is making up 11% of the worldwide polymer market (Figure 3).

Nevertheless, the market remains challenging from a political perspective and in terms of crude oil prices, as major advantages of biobased polymers have not been politically rewarded yet: Biobased polymers replace fossil carbon in the production process with renewable carbon from biomass.

This is indispensable for a sustainable, climate-friendly plastics industry. Biodegradability is offered by almost half of the produced bio-based polymers. This can be a risk minimisation for plastics that cannot be collected and enter the environment. In these cases, they can be biodegraded without leaving microplastics. Only two European countries, Italy and Austria will politically support this additional disposal path.

(PRA)

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